Research snapshot
Landscape survey · compiled 11 Oct 2026
Sources ↓
The evidence boundary

No intervention has extended human lifespan.

But the pursuit is no longer fringe. Animal longevity, human function, organ preservation, and connectomics are moving at very different speeds. This survey separates the strongest signals from the longest bets.

THRESHOLD
Evidence todayEscape velocity remains unproven
Conceptual trajectory, not a forecast. The 1-year-per-year threshold has not been reached.
0human lifespan extensions demonstrated by intervention
10–20%mouse lifespan extension repeatedly observed with rapamycin via the NIA program
+109%median remaining lifespan in very old male mice after OSK gene therapy, animal data only
+63.4 m6-minute walk at month 9 in a phase 2b frailty trial
01 / EVIDENCE STACK

Ten directions, ranked by what survives contact with evidence.

The order combines replication, mechanism, human data, and tractability. “Promising” means scientifically promising, not proven, safe, or commercially ready.

01

mTOR inhibition

Replicated mammal evidence
Rapamycin is the field's repeatability leader. The NIA program reports 10–20% mouse lifespan extension. A 2025 trametinib combination reached 27–29%, but PEARL missed its primary human aging endpoint.
UnlockLong-term human morbidity or mortality endpoints; responder biomarkers.
02

Partial reprogramming

Largest mouse effects
OSK/OSKM can reset cell state without full dedifferentiation. One study reported +109% median remaining lifespan in 124-week-old male mice. Partial reprogramming now has its first human data. On 8 October 2026 Life Biosciences reported that ER-100, an AAV therapy expressing the OSK reprogramming factors under a doxycycline switch, was well tolerated through Day 56 in the first three participants of its Phase 1 trial in open-angle glaucoma (NCT07290244), with no dose-limiting toxicities or serious adverse events, and the safety board cleared escalation to a higher dose. Two of three participants showed early visual-field improvement signals. This is company-reported, open-label safety data in three people with no control group: it establishes that in vivo OSK expression has begun human testing, not that reprogramming works in humans.
UnlockSafe, targeted delivery and a human phase 1 with functional benefit.
03

Senolytics

Mixed human evidence
Target engagement is real; durable benefit is unsettled. Small trials show cell clearance and disease-specific signals, while the 60-person bone trial missed its primary endpoint.
UnlockA large hard-endpoint RCT and a validated senescence-burden test.
04

Stem-cell / MSC / EV

Positive phase 2b function
Laromestrocel improved walking distance in age-related frailty. The n=148 phase 2b result is the clearest human functional signal in this ranking, but persistence is unknown.
UnlockPhase 3 confirmation and durable effects beyond 9–12 months.
05

Plasma factors

Robust mouse model
Young and old circulation produce broad tissue effects in mice. The evidence points to a network, not one rejuvenating molecule; clinical translation has failed so far.
UnlockA defined factor or anti-factor with a positive randomized trial.
06

NAD+ restoration

Strong biomarker, weak outcome
NMN and NR raise blood NAD+ reliably. Meta-analyses show little movement in metabolic, muscle, or performance outcomes; safety questions remain for susceptible groups. The qualifier now hardens: the largest rigorous test of an NAD+ precursor so far, the Phase 3 NOPARK trial in Parkinson disease, was negative - raising NAD levels is not, by itself, evidence of a clinical effect.
UnlockA long trial with hard outcomes in a defined deficient population.
07

Longevity gene therapy

Preclinical
Klotho, follistatin, FOXO3, FGF21 and related targets are compelling in animals. Controlled human longevity data do not exist.
UnlockHuman AAV safety and functional-endpoint trials.
08

Organ nanowarming

Proven in rat kidneys
Vitrified rat kidneys stored up to 100 days returned to life-sustaining function after rapid rewarming. Human scale and brain recovery remain unsolved.
UnlockPig-organ translation, lower cryoprotectant toxicity, safe scale-up.
09

Brain preservation

Structure, not viability
ASC preserved mammal connectomes well enough to win the 2016 and 2018 Brain Preservation Prizes. Fixation crosslinks proteins and forecloses revival of the original biological brain.
UnlockMemory or behavior surviving cryopreservation and revival in a mammal.
10

Whole-brain emulation

Multi-decade engineering
The adult fly connectome is complete; a mouse is not technically feasible today. There is no funded program whose explicit goal is mind uploading.
UnlockMammalian connectomics plus evidence that structure captures mind.
02 / HUMAN SIGNAL

Function is beginning to move. Lifespan is not.

The most informative trials are not a clean victory column. They show where biomarkers diverge from outcomes, where subgroups matter, and where a missed primary endpoint outweighs a promising secondary result.

Stem cellsPhase 2b · n=148

A measurable mobility gain

Laromestrocel produced a +63.4 m change in 6-minute walk at month 9 in ambulatory frailty (p=0.0077). TIE-2 emerged as a candidate response biomarker. Phase 3 and durability remain open.

Longeveron result ↗
SenolyticsPhase 2 · n=60

Primary miss, subgroup hint

Intermittent dasatinib + quercetin for 20 weeks did not improve the primary bone-resorption endpoint (P=0.611). A high-senescence subgroup showed increased radial bone density. No serious adverse events were reported.

NIA trial summary ↗
Rapamycin48 weeks · age 50–85

Safety signal, no primary effect

The PEARL trial tested 5 or 10 mg weekly. The primary aging endpoint did not move significantly. Secondary signals suggested preserved lean mass in women and bone mineral in men; the trial was likely safe over one year.

PEARL summary ↗
NAD+ precursors12 RCTs · n=513

The biomarker-benefit gap

NMN raises circulating NAD+, yet a 2024 meta-analysis found no significant difference from control in fasting glucose, triglycerides, or total, LDL, and HDL cholesterol. This is the field's cleanest warning against treating biomarker movement as health benefit.

Clinical review ↗
Partial reprogrammingPhase 1 · n=3

First human OSK data

Partial reprogramming now has its first human data. On 8 October 2026 Life Biosciences reported that ER-100, an AAV therapy expressing the OSK reprogramming factors under a doxycycline switch, was well tolerated through Day 56 in the first three participants of its Phase 1 trial in open-angle glaucoma (NCT07290244), with no dose-limiting toxicities or serious adverse events, and the safety board cleared escalation to a higher dose. Two of three participants showed early visual-field improvement signals. This is company-reported, open-label safety data in three people with no control group: it establishes that in vivo OSK expression has begun human testing, not that reprogramming works in humans.

Life Biosciences release ↗
NAD+ precursorsPhase 3 · n=410

The largest NAD+ test was negative

The largest rigorous test of an NAD+ precursor so far came back negative. In the Phase 3 NOPARK trial (JAMA, 2026; 410 people with early Parkinson disease, one year of nicotinamide riboside), the supplement raised NAD metabolism as intended but produced no clinical benefit, with disease scores slightly worse than placebo. This does not settle NAD+ boosting for other conditions, but it removes Parkinson disease as a supporting example and shows that raising NAD levels is not, by itself, evidence of a clinical effect.

NOPARK report ↗
03 / PRESERVATION ROUTES

Preserving a person and preserving a pattern are different wagers.

Cryonics, structural brain preservation, and emulation are often collapsed into one idea. Their evidence, failure modes, and definitions of continuity are not the same.

ROUTE A / BIOLOGICAL REVIVAL

Vitrify, repair, revive

Legal-death preservation uses cryoprotectant perfusion and storage near −196 °C. Alcor lists roughly $80k for neuropreservation and $200k for whole body; Cryonics Institute lists $28k plus roughly $60k standby and transport.

Evidence boundaryNo full mammal has ever been cooled to cryogenic temperatures and revived. Organ nanowarming is the strongest adjacent result, not proof of human revival.

Provider landscape ↗
ROUTE B / INFORMATIONAL CONTINUITY

Preserve, scan, emulate

Aldehyde-stabilized cryopreservation preserves microscopic structure by fixation and vitrification. Rabbit and pig brains passed independent prize evaluation, but the process crosslinks proteins and preserves structure rather than viable tissue.

Evidence boundaryA complete human connectome is estimated near 1 zettabyte. Serious assessments place human whole-brain emulation several decades to more than a century away.

Large Mammal Prize context ↗
Organ bankingNature Communications · 2023

One hard preservation result

Rat kidneys were vitrified at −122 °C, stored for up to 100 days, rewarmed in roughly 90 seconds, and transplanted into five rats. Full life-sustaining function returned within roughly 30 days. Cryoprotectant toxicity was the limiting factor.

Primary paper ↗
ConnectomicsScale gap

Fly complete; mouse out of reach

The adult fruit-fly connectome contains about 130,000 neurons and took roughly 12 years. A mouse has about 70 million neurons and is not technically feasible today, according to the Allen Institute.

Connectome report ↗
Organ bankingbioRxiv preprint · Oct 2026

Kidneys at human scale, a year on ice

The preservation field's next scale test has been passed at preprint stage. Reported on 15 October 2026, porcine kidneys of about 100 g were vitrified with a new cryoprotectant, stored at −150 °C for up to a year, nanowarmed, and recovered function on machine perfusion approaching standard cold storage; acutely transplanted organs reperfused at once and produced urine. The work is a bioRxiv preprint that has not yet passed peer review, and the transplants were acute experiments, not long-term graft survival.

Preprint ↗
04 / CAPITAL & INSTITUTIONS

The science is speculative. The institutions are real.

Large private labs, public research programs, and philanthropy now sustain a serious geroscience ecosystem. Funding totals vary sharply with the definition of “longevity.”

$3B

Altos Labs launch capital

Cellular reprogramming and senescence; acquired Dorian Therapeutics in May 2025.

~$400M

Hevolution commitment

Committed over roughly two years, making it the largest philanthropic funder of geroscience globally.

$101M

XPRIZE Healthspan purse

Ten Milestone 2 teams received $1M each in August 2026 and now target muscle, cognitive, and immune function.

$1B

Retro Biosciences Series A target

Reported in January 2025 as a raise in progress; completion was not confirmed.

Do not merge the market totals. One methodology reports $5.7B across about 170 deals in 2025; a broader methodology reports $18.4B. The difference is definitional, not a rounding error. L.E.K. · broader estimate

NIA Interventions Testing Program

Replication engine

Buck Institute

Independent aging institute

Mayo Clinic

Senolytics

Altos Labs

Reprogramming · preclinical

Retro Biosciences

Reprogramming · plasma · autophagy

Longeveron

MSC · positive phase 2b

Rejuvenate Bio

OSK · gene therapy

NewLimit

Epigenetic reprogramming

Hevolution Foundation

Philanthropic scale

XPRIZE Healthspan

Functional challenge
05 / FAILURE FILE

The graveyard is part of the map.

The field's most useful negative cases expose assay artifacts, regulatory arbitrage, biomarker substitution, and ordinary clinical failure.

2003–2010

Sirtris and the fluorescent artifact

Resveratrol's apparent SIRT1 activation was traced to the assay reagent. GSK had acquired Sirtris for $720M in 2008, then terminated SRT501 in 2010. Source ↗

2017–2019

Ambrosia's “young blood” market

Commercial plasma transfusions ran ahead of evidence until the FDA issued a 2019 safety warning. Alkahest/Grifols plasma-fraction trials did not deliver a translation.

2019–?

Libella's $1M offshore trial

The AAV-hTERT trial was announced in Colombia outside FDA jurisdiction. Bioethicists flagged the setup; no peer-reviewed results have been published. MIT Technology Review ↗

2025

Unity Biotechnology

UBX1325 missed its phase 2b primary endpoint and Nasdaq suspended the listing. Liquidation is reported but lacks a primary corporate or SEC dissolution statement, so it remains probable rather than confirmed. Trial outcome ↗

2026

NOPARK: a rigorous negative

The Phase 3 NOPARK trial (JAMA, 2026) tested one year of nicotinamide riboside in 410 people with early Parkinson disease. NAD metabolism rose as intended, but there was no clinical benefit and disease scores were slightly worse than placebo - the largest rigorous test of an NAD+ precursor, and a direct demonstration that raising NAD levels is not, by itself, evidence of a clinical effect. Source ↗

06 / MONTHLY ISSUE

The November issue: reprogramming widens, measurement converges.

Issue 02 is the first scan measured against a prior position. Against the October baseline the ranked stack holds; the month's movement sits in reprogramming's wider map, one MSC program's regulatory turn, and the field's shared measurement project.

Issue 02 · November 2026

Where the evidence points now

Scan scope: radical life extension
Evidence window: 22 to 31 Oct 2026, plus one dated catch-up
Next publication: 1 Dec 2026
Direction of travel

Near term: functional healthspan evidence, with shared measurement joining it as the field's common project. Long term: partial reprogramming has the strongest animal effect sizes, and its map widened this month from the eye to the brain; the open questions shift toward timing and identity.

New research branches to develop

Emulation welfare and release governance; de-aging with identity held; reprogramming as preconditioning (durability and post-injury dosing windows); and one yardstick, many therapies: the XPRIZE finalist cohort as a shared-measurement experiment.

Change ledger

Against Issue 01, the ten ranked directions hold their order. Thread 1 gains an animal brain result and its identity-question case; Thread 5 opens a new branch (emulation welfare and release governance); the laromestrocel watch item advanced to an FDA-meeting decision point; Thread 6 files two October cases on claim discipline.

December scan test

Promote a direction only if the new evidence improves replication, advances from animal to human, reports a prespecified clinical endpoint, or resolves a named safety or delivery constraint. A prespecified secondary counts as a signal to track, and the primary endpoint result travels with it in every summary.

Update · November 2026

Three developments carry the month. Partial reprogramming protected the aged brain in animals: four weeks of cyclic OSKM expression before a permanently occluded cerebral artery left aged mice with a smaller ischemic area at 48 hours (24.9% of the hemisphere against 31.5%), neurons and myelin preserved; dosing ran before the injury and the readout is acute (Aging Cell, October 2026). Laromestrocel's ELPIS II analysis (26 October 2026) confirms a missed primary endpoint on right ventricular function (p = 0.68) beside a significant prespecified secondary: major adverse cardiac events 1 against 8 (P = 0.043) across 40 infants; an FDA meeting is requested and the data present at the AHA sessions on 8 November. A dated catch-up from 3 October: direct conversion of human blood progenitors into neural stem cells reset epigenetic age to about 5 to 13% of donor age while changing cell identity (Aging Cell), sharpening the question of what counts as rejuvenation. The November issue's sources were fetched and verified in live sessions on 31 October 2026.

Archive

Previous issues stay published. October 2026 · Issue 01 (Baseline)

07 / PATH FORWARD

Follow convergence, not spectacle.

The next credible turn will not be one dramatic headline. It will be independent replication, validated measurement, targeted delivery, and function that lasts.

Watch closely

  1. Human mTOR trials with clinical endpoints rather than clock movement
  2. Safe OSK delivery with tissue specificity and cancer surveillance
  3. Senolytic responder stratification by baseline burden
  4. Laromestrocel phase 3 and persistence beyond 12 months
  5. Pig-kidney nanowarming as the next scale test

Resolve next

  • Which hallmarks are causal drivers
  • Which biological-age measures are stable and predictive
  • Whether partial reprogramming preserves cell identity
  • Whether plasma effects can be reduced to manufacturable factors
  • Whether a connectome is enough to recover a mind

Hold the line

  • No human lifespan claim without survival data
  • No rejuvenation claim from one biomarker
  • No cryonics claim that blurs structure and viability
  • No market total without methodology
  • No “program” when only adjacent research exists
08 / SOURCE LEDGER

Trace the claims.

Selected primary or closest-available sources for the core findings in this brief. The underlying survey used web-search index results gathered on 11 October 2026. On 21 October 2026 every source was fetched and verified in live sessions; three citations did not survive that check and were corrected: a dead link replaced with the primary paper, a link to a removed site replaced with the institution's own page, and one updated to the publisher's new domain.

Core biology & human trials 15 references
Preservation & emulation 9 references
Funding, institutions & failures 8 references